As part of the changes for the second pricing window of this month, prices for petroleum products are anticipated to increase once again starting on Sunday, October 16.
According to the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers, fuel prices nationwide are expected to rise by an average of 10% for both diesel and petrol (COPEC).
Based on data from the downstream sector and changes in foreign exchange rates, COPEC forecasts an average price increase of roughly 10.12% for both petrol and diesel due to the rise in crude oil prices on the world market and the devaluation of the cedi.
"Between the current window and the next window due, 16 Oct 2022, Crude oil price is observed to have seen an increase of 3.66% from $89.46 to $92.73 per Barrel, whilst the Dollar index has further gone up by about 4.08% from GHS10.21 to GHS10.627 per Dollar as per Government rate (Conservative figures) though actual market rates are quite higher currently," COPEC observed.
The corresponding international processed Petroleum prices for the next window average as follows:
Petrol: $964.75/MT (up by 15.72%)
Diesel: $1,097.15/MT (up by 9.60%)
Internally, it is anticipated that the average price of both petrol and diesel will be GHS13.77/L for the next window, representing a price increase of 10.12% above the current Mean Fuel Prices for both products throughout the different OMCs trading.
According to observed data, petrol, which is presently selling at GHS11.06/L (the industry average), is expected to be sold at GHS12.38/L (11.88% higher) starting on October 16, 2022, while diesel, which is currently selling at GHS13.95/L (the industry average), is likely to be sold at GHS15.16/L. (8.72% more)
The price of LPG is anticipated to increase by 5.04% to sell for about GHS10.21/kg, with the international price expected to reach $618.34/MT (up by 3.81%).
The mean ex-pump prices are anticipated to be within the estimated numbers by +/-2% as shown below, assuming no abrupt changes in the price of crude oil that might affect the prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG on the international market:
Petrol: GHS12.12/L to GHS12.63/L
Diesel: GHS14.86/L to GHS15.46/L
LPG: GHS10.01/kg to GHS10.41/kg
Therefore, COPEC pleaded with the petroleum service providers in the statement to consider using the full weight of the indices in their pricing.
It added: "We are without equivocation, mindful that, the projected figures are conservatively lower than what the actuals could be due to the continuous depreciation of the local currency."
It further admonished: "Government to do whatever it deems necessary, to ensure an urgent stabilisation of the cedi to the Dollar exchange rate in order to prevent pricing of petroleum products getting to an impending disaster as the effect of these steep increases in fuel prices cuts across all sectors of the local economy and to also further ensure some drastic reductions of some of the existing taxes and levies on Petroleum products to help ease the burden on consumers."