In a recent development, a special delegates-based survey conducted by Outcomes International Ghana and the Center for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) UK has projected Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to emerge as the winner of the special delegates elections within the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
The survey results indicate a commanding lead for Dr. Bawumia with an impressive 72.6% of the projected vote share.
The survey, which delved into the preferences of NPP special delegates, aimed to anticipate the potential outcome of the November 4, 2023 NPP Presidential primaries.
Among the five candidates assessed, Dr. Bawumia's popularity was evident, as he secured a significant lead over his rivals.
Alan Kyeremanten, a prominent contender, emerged as the second most favored candidate with a notable 7.7% of the projected votes.
In third place, Ken Agyapong captured 4.3%, followed by Kwabena Agyepong at 1.8%. Dr. Owusu Akoto rounded off the list with 0.6% of the projected votes.
The cumulative votes for the remaining five candidates amounted to 1.3%, with a notable 11.7% of the delegates remaining undecided.
The survey took a comprehensive approach, considering not only the voting preferences but also socio-demographic factors that might impact the outcome of the election.
The research explored how factors like ethnicity, geography, and religion might influence delegates' choices, as well as the criteria used to assess the suitability of a candidate.
Conducted across all 16 regions of the country, the survey employed a sample of 300 NPP special delegates out of the 961 voters in the electoral college.
The study utilized a multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) approach with implicit stratification to ensure the survey's representativeness and operational efficiency.
Data collection relied heavily on computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology to streamline the process.
The regional breakdown of the sample size highlighted diverse participation, with Upper West contributing 11 interviews, Upper East 17, North East 15, Northern 19, Savannah 17, Bono East 19, Bono 14, Ahafo 11, Ashanti 36, Eastern 29, Greater Accra 29, Central 19, Western 19, Western North 15, Oti 11, and Volta region 19.
In terms of respondents' categories, the study involved various key stakeholders within the NPP, including Constituency Chairpersons (143), Regional executive members (103), Members of Parliament (33), Council of Elders (9), National Council members (8), card-bearing Ministers (3), and past National Officers (1).